read and forward

Monica married Hitesh this day. At the end of the wedding party, Monica's mother gave her a newly opened bank savings passbook with Rs. 1000 deposit amount.Mother: 'Monica, take this passbook. Keep it as a record of your marriage life. When there's something happy and memorable happened in your new life, put some money in. Write down what it's about next to the line. The more memorable the event is, the more money you can put in. I've done the first one for you today. Do the others with Hitesh. When you look back after years, you can know how much happiness you've had.'Monica shared this with Hitesh when getting home. They both thought it was a great idea and were anxious to know when the second deposit can be made. This was what they did after certain time:- 7 Feb: Rs. 100, first birthday celebration for Hitesh after marriage- 1 Mar: Rs.. 300, salary raise for Monica- 20 Mar: Rs. 200, vacation trip to Bali- 15 Apr: Rs. 2000, Monica got pregnant- 1 Jun: Rs. 1000, Hitesh got promoted..... and so on...However, after years, they started fighting and arguing for trivial things. They didn't talk much. They regretted that they had married the most nasty people in the world.... no more love...Kind of typical nowadays, huh?One day Monica talked to her Mother: 'Mom, we can't stand it anymore. We agree to divorce. I can't imagine how I decided to marry this guy!!!'Mother: 'Sure, girl, that's no big deal. Just do whatever you want if you really can't stand it. But before that, do one thing first. Remember the savings passbook I gave you on your wedding day? Take out all money and spend it first. You shouldn't keep any record of such a poor marriage.'Monica thought it was true. So she went to the bank, waiting at the queue and planning to cancel the account. While she was waiting, she took a look at the passbook record. She looked, and looked, and looked. Then the memory of all the previous joy and happiness just came up her mind. Her eyes were then filled with tears. She left and went home. When she was home, she handed the passbook to Hitesh, asked him to spend the money before getting divorce.The next day, Hitesh gave the passbook back to Monica. She found a new deposit of Rs. 5000. And a line next to the record: 'This is the day I notice how much I've loved you thru out all these years. How much happiness you've brought me.'They hugged and cried, putting the passbook back to the safe.Do you know how much money they had saved when they retired? I did not ask.. I believe the money did not matter any more after they had gone thru all the good years in their life."When you fall, in any way, *Don't see the place where you fell, Instead see the place from where you* * slipped.*Life is about correcting mistakes."


source...... Jaiprakash Goenka..(narayani.net.in)

turning point.....turning time....??????

1) five day chart showing trend is changing and resistance near 2950 in all ways trend line, chnnel breaks etc.2)one more thing if we take 3240 to 2502 leg then 50 % of it is 2871 and 61.8% is 2958 and resistance is at same level.3)another point is that nifty is trading below 20 dema since 26 august @ 4535, it only crosed twice after that till 12 dec. it was just for 2 days above 20 dema since 26 august. 4) on sensex from 10945 to 8316 fall ... 50 % is @ 93630 and 61.8% is 9940. it has gone up to 9745.5) generally up rally is for 4/5 weeks from 2502 coming week is 4th weekso i think now it is turning point.

8300........

If oct 27 closing basis low protected then fall may stop here else nwo low.

on sensex support expected @ 8300.

no fresh shorts if 2520 on sensex maintained.

now end of rally

I think today or tomorrow might be the last day of this rally. we will go to 9200/8800 on sensex and this will be higher bottom at least for time being.
in this rally i was shorting with every 100 points in nifty .

BUY DEC NIFTY

Market was as expected in last four sessions.
Today i expect 2850. One should buy DEC NIFTY @ /AROUND 2850/2880. This is risky trade. Tgt 3050 on MUHURAT TRADING. One should keep additional margin for this trade.
One should keep in mind RBI credit policy today. Market not looking positively to any good news, but if after announcing policy if there is 80/100 points surge in nifty one should book profit today itself in this trade. At the same time keep watch on 2800. Think here about this trade whether to keep or book loss. Do as one should afford. My opinion better to average if it goes down but afgain it is risky.
One more thing RELIANCE INDUSTRY results are not bad.
As far shorts positions are concerned cover it @ / around 2850/2880.

9900/9700 on sensex and 2930/2850 on nifty

Again Dark Cloud Covered the Indian market.
Today we will see new low.sensex might settle around 9800/9700 and nifty 2930/2850.
See at this level whether market is hurry to recover, chances are remote but, if there is such sign then cover shorts and keeping sl for day;s low go long but not heavy. I f market didn't seen in a hurry to recover at lower level then keep shorts open for tommorrow morning.
My suggession is book 50% shorts at opening and decide later next strategy.
I am short and will follow the above policy.

will get 300/400 points in nifty for longs

as i earlier given hints for 3000 nifty it has came to that level. i think 2990 will give some support. but at this point buy DEC nifty and just one lot add margin with some extra % and enjoy.
you will get at least 300/400 points upwards.
no more at this point.
let's see.
i will cover my shorts at gap down opening on monday and will go long. not heavy but light long positions sure.

mix cues......

yes as predicted fall taken place...
now...??? for tommorrow there are mix cues..
1) at this moment us market is deep in red...
2) we are towards new low already, if 3300 breaks then no way....
but
1) RBI has CRR cut by 1%
2) we are nearly 61.8% of fall to earlier rally
so which cue will works?? that thing will decide at least thursday's trading.
actually market is not in a mood to listen any good news so it seems that CRR step will not help....
let's see
if gap up then again chance to short @ 3450
i am short as of now.

nifty 3100 sensex below 10000.....????

ya,

iceland reversal today protected as closed above 11406.but if tommorrow gap down then iceland reversal ...??and dark cloud cover today....us drop from almost 380 ++++ at this moment.i think if gap down and 3430 breaks then only red....will this go below 3100 9 (sensex elow 10000)i think so....perhaps there could be more technicals but i am taking in to consideration these only at present.....act on your own perspective..i am holding 3700 put @ 160 3600 @ 200 3500 @ 140and so many.......of course PE's. let's see.

nifty 3400????

Looking chartof nifty ( 5 days) 3730 it tline resistance. though market reacted positively in the morning today it couldn't sustain above 3700.

if 3550 broken then 3400????

and ultimate tgt 3000 looks possible but wait for that.

SEPTEMBER NIFTY........

Buy september nifty 5000 call @ 65/70 level with sl @ 40 or Agust nifty close below 4465.
If somebody done with good skill he might get best returns.
Nifty has closed above 100 ema since Jan 08. SO tgt of 4722 can be achieved.
Take your own decision.

In Jan we got high of 21206.
1)sensex corrected to 15332== fall of 5874 points
2)From 15332 rallied upto 18895== rise of 3563
3)From 18895 to 14677== fall of 4218
4)From 14677 to 17335== rise of 3058
5)From 17335 to 12514== fall of 5221
6)From 12514 to 15130== rise of 2616
a)first upward rally was 61.8% of fall
b) second upward rally was 75 % of fall
c)third wich is on has rallied 50 % (upto 15130) so farprobabilities.......
i)it can rally up to 61.8% means 15740
ii) it can rally up to 75 % as earlier= 16430
iii) to cross 61.8% there is a gap of 15259-15390
iv)if it cross 61.8% then there is earlier high 15789
v) if it also cross then it can achieve 75% as earlier which is 16430
MORE TO REMEMBER
i) if this rally gets upto 61.8% means 15740 then it is bigger than earlier
ii)can we assume on this that bear phase is over?? cant say.cause the fall afterwards must be smaller to get the correct inference, and for THAT the comparing number is 5221.(which is earlier fall)now suppose bear phase is not over will it fall bigger than earlier and to this level for technical reasons??IF YES THEN SENSEX CAN TOUCH 10000/10500 LEVEL(15700-5221=10479) AND WHICH IS DUE FOR CYCLICAL LEVELS(EIGHT YEAR CORRECTION CYCLE).so the top of current rally and then next level is more important.means it will take another 3/4 months.and bear rally takes at least 12/18 months to complete. then there might be concolidation which will take 4/6 months.so to began bukk run again one has to wait for march 09. of course this is I am saying on current rally and next assumed developments.

NIFTY 3700/3650..INTACT????

1)If we viewed the nifty chart since the beginning of bull rally (950 to 6372)the 38% coreection was upto 4300 50% is upto 3661 and 61.8% is upto 3022.
a)The world economic scenario is not changed in just 2/3 days.
b)The crude is not the only factor to tumble all stock markets in the world.
c)Bernanke's latest statement is more serious than earlier.(he might be delivering statements step by step to delay more disaster in us market, or perhaps he might have wrong predictions earlier or what happened it might be totally unexpected for him.).
d)At the same time our growth is not going to be 8.5 or 8 even.
e) Inflation cannot be controlled at least up to Dec/Mar.
f)crr/repo rate hike is inevitable.
e) Bank rates should go up.g) slow down expected in Indian economy too.
h) All this factors will dampen the earning estimates.
i)Generally bear phase is expected to remain for 12/18 months.
j)After ending this phase there will be consolidation phase.And then again bull rally will start.
2) considering all these factors market will not be in a hurry to be bullish. So what happened on thursday/friday must be just pullback. Worst is not over yet.Current series is a bigger in compare to trading sessions.So there are still 9 sessions to go. From the beginning of this series market is range bound.So selling on higher side might be good.I am still expecting 3650/3750 and it is in current series.

I AM EXPECTING -

S&P 500--@ 1070/1030,

NASDAQ @ 2070/2030,

DOW @ 10700/ 10300.

THOSE WHO ARE FISHING BOTTOM...
1)WE WILL NOT GET OUT OF WOODS TILL JUNE 2009 OR AT LEAST FIRST QURTER OF 2009.
2)CURRENTLY WE ARE 14X EARNINGS OF FY2009 AND IN BEAR MARKET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED 8X OF EARNING ESTIMATES. SO THERE IS MORE ROOM TO CORRECT.
3)THERE ARE SO MANY PRICES THAT ARE RISEN 100s OF POINTS IN PERCENTAGE. AND IF WE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THE CORRECTION IN THOSE SCRIPS THE PRICES ARE STILL VERY MUCH HIGH.
4)BOTTOM FISHING IS GOOD FOR DISCUSSION ON TV CHANNEL ONLY. IT NEVER HAPPENED THAT MARKET HAS MADE A BOTTOM BUT, AND THEN AFTER NONE OF THE INDEX OR NON INDEX SCRIP HAD NOT SHOWN LOWEST PRICE. SO BETTER TO BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND APPLYING FUNDAMENTALS TO PARTICULAR SCRIP, SECTOR.
5)WHILE DOING ONE HAS TO KEEP TRAK OF SENSEX PE ALSO.
6) I THINK TO GET 50% RETURN ON INVESTENMETN PTO JUNE 2010 THIS IS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY, BUT TOUGH THE PRICES ARE MOUTH WATERING STILL I WILL SAY WAIT PATIENTLY. IN MY OPINION SENSEX WILL COME NEAR 10000 OR 10500 AND NIFTY WILL SHOE 3000 OR 3150.(CHANCES ARE REMOTE BUT IT CAN SHOW 9000 TOO AND NIFTY 2600). LET'S SEE. MARKET IS ITSELF LEADER.

For investement

I AM WAITING FOR FOLLOWING.....

RELIANCE INDUSTRY 1630/1580

RELIANCE CAPITAL 760/680

RELIANCE NATURAL 45/30

RELIANCE PETRO 115/90

RELIANCE INFRA 590/560

RELIANCE COMMUNICATION 320/280

ICICI BANK 460/390STATE BANK 830/790

BANK OF INDIA 160/140

PARSHWANATH DEVELOPERS 80/60

DLF 290/260

LANCO 190/160

I CANOT PREDICT TIME FRAME BUT I WILL ENTER ONLY AT THIS LEVEL FOR INVESTEMENT.

looking chart expecting 4240 and 4320 if decesively cross 4110.
Else 3700 is target.

BLACK MONDAY????

Looking US market on friday we cannot sustain though we have little bounce from 4316 on NIFTY FUTURE and 4333 on spot. We are heading towards 13770 on sensex and 4000 on NIFTY. Question is when on Monday itself or tuesday or....??? We are at ovewrsold level so getting some bounce and then again downward ???? But looking global cues it is not possible. So black Monday...????

SEE DOW CHART. VERY LONG TERM SUPPORT SHOULD BE TESTED OR LAST PATTERN SHOULD FOLLOWED? EVEN IF PATTERN FOLLOWED THERE MIGHT BE MORE DOWNSIDE .AT LEAST 150/200 POINTS.

And this is chart of volatility index (us).

what I had earlier written is still on blog. Compare it.

See the same day on which i posted here it bounced from mini red channel.Broke the upward trendline and since last three days there is a correction.

Call section

Positional: Buy nifty with sl of 4913 for tgt of 5060.
******If 4913 is protected then buy NIFTY 5200 CE. It can be a lottery.
This is of course my personal view.

Cautious or Aggressive...?????

See the volatility index for US market.
It is lower to september. If it breaks red mini downward then some upside might be there in market.But... if it getting bounce exactly at trendline of mini red channel then some short term correction is possible. After this we have to see whether it is breaking red mini upward direction. If this happens then there might be significant fall in market.

Interestingly S%P and DOW is near strong resistance when volatility index is @ support.