1)If we viewed the nifty chart since the beginning of bull rally (950 to 6372)the 38% coreection was upto 4300 50% is upto 3661 and 61.8% is upto 3022.
a)The world economic scenario is not changed in just 2/3 days.
b)The crude is not the only factor to tumble all stock markets in the world.
c)Bernanke's latest statement is more serious than earlier.(he might be delivering statements step by step to delay more disaster in us market, or perhaps he might have wrong predictions earlier or what happened it might be totally unexpected for him.).
d)At the same time our growth is not going to be 8.5 or 8 even.
e) Inflation cannot be controlled at least up to Dec/Mar.
f)crr/repo rate hike is inevitable.
e) Bank rates should go up.g) slow down expected in Indian economy too.
h) All this factors will dampen the earning estimates.
i)Generally bear phase is expected to remain for 12/18 months.
j)After ending this phase there will be consolidation phase.And then again bull rally will start.
2) considering all these factors market will not be in a hurry to be bullish. So what happened on thursday/friday must be just pullback. Worst is not over yet.Current series is a bigger in compare to trading sessions.So there are still 9 sessions to go. From the beginning of this series market is range bound.So selling on higher side might be good.I am still expecting 3650/3750 and it is in current series.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Saturday, July 12, 2008
THOSE WHO ARE FISHING BOTTOM...
1)WE WILL NOT GET OUT OF WOODS TILL JUNE 2009 OR AT LEAST FIRST QURTER OF 2009.
2)CURRENTLY WE ARE 14X EARNINGS OF FY2009 AND IN BEAR MARKET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED 8X OF EARNING ESTIMATES. SO THERE IS MORE ROOM TO CORRECT.
3)THERE ARE SO MANY PRICES THAT ARE RISEN 100s OF POINTS IN PERCENTAGE. AND IF WE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THE CORRECTION IN THOSE SCRIPS THE PRICES ARE STILL VERY MUCH HIGH.
4)BOTTOM FISHING IS GOOD FOR DISCUSSION ON TV CHANNEL ONLY. IT NEVER HAPPENED THAT MARKET HAS MADE A BOTTOM BUT, AND THEN AFTER NONE OF THE INDEX OR NON INDEX SCRIP HAD NOT SHOWN LOWEST PRICE. SO BETTER TO BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND APPLYING FUNDAMENTALS TO PARTICULAR SCRIP, SECTOR.
5)WHILE DOING ONE HAS TO KEEP TRAK OF SENSEX PE ALSO.
6) I THINK TO GET 50% RETURN ON INVESTENMETN PTO JUNE 2010 THIS IS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY, BUT TOUGH THE PRICES ARE MOUTH WATERING STILL I WILL SAY WAIT PATIENTLY. IN MY OPINION SENSEX WILL COME NEAR 10000 OR 10500 AND NIFTY WILL SHOE 3000 OR 3150.(CHANCES ARE REMOTE BUT IT CAN SHOW 9000 TOO AND NIFTY 2600). LET'S SEE. MARKET IS ITSELF LEADER.
1)WE WILL NOT GET OUT OF WOODS TILL JUNE 2009 OR AT LEAST FIRST QURTER OF 2009.
2)CURRENTLY WE ARE 14X EARNINGS OF FY2009 AND IN BEAR MARKET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED 8X OF EARNING ESTIMATES. SO THERE IS MORE ROOM TO CORRECT.
3)THERE ARE SO MANY PRICES THAT ARE RISEN 100s OF POINTS IN PERCENTAGE. AND IF WE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THE CORRECTION IN THOSE SCRIPS THE PRICES ARE STILL VERY MUCH HIGH.
4)BOTTOM FISHING IS GOOD FOR DISCUSSION ON TV CHANNEL ONLY. IT NEVER HAPPENED THAT MARKET HAS MADE A BOTTOM BUT, AND THEN AFTER NONE OF THE INDEX OR NON INDEX SCRIP HAD NOT SHOWN LOWEST PRICE. SO BETTER TO BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND APPLYING FUNDAMENTALS TO PARTICULAR SCRIP, SECTOR.
5)WHILE DOING ONE HAS TO KEEP TRAK OF SENSEX PE ALSO.
6) I THINK TO GET 50% RETURN ON INVESTENMETN PTO JUNE 2010 THIS IS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY, BUT TOUGH THE PRICES ARE MOUTH WATERING STILL I WILL SAY WAIT PATIENTLY. IN MY OPINION SENSEX WILL COME NEAR 10000 OR 10500 AND NIFTY WILL SHOE 3000 OR 3150.(CHANCES ARE REMOTE BUT IT CAN SHOW 9000 TOO AND NIFTY 2600). LET'S SEE. MARKET IS ITSELF LEADER.
For investement
I AM WAITING FOR FOLLOWING.....
RELIANCE INDUSTRY 1630/1580
RELIANCE CAPITAL 760/680
RELIANCE NATURAL 45/30
RELIANCE PETRO 115/90
RELIANCE INFRA 590/560
RELIANCE COMMUNICATION 320/280
ICICI BANK 460/390STATE BANK 830/790
BANK OF INDIA 160/140
PARSHWANATH DEVELOPERS 80/60
DLF 290/260
LANCO 190/160
I CANOT PREDICT TIME FRAME BUT I WILL ENTER ONLY AT THIS LEVEL FOR INVESTEMENT.
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